‘Apple’s Shadow’ Cast Over the Faltering Foldable Phone Market in 2024

The faltering foldable phone industry is noisy these days. This is because forecasts are being raised everywhere that this year’s growth will be slower than previous years. Issues causing confusion are also emerging, such as Samsung Electronics, the number one company in the industry, losing its metallurgical market share to Chinese companies. Where is the foldable phone industry, which is still in its infancy, headed?

The growth of Faltering foldable phones is slowing. On the 22nd (local time), market research firm Trend Force predicted that foldable phone shipments this year would reach 17.7 million units, an 11.0% increase compared to the previous year (15.9 million units). At first glance, it seems like a positive outlook, but it is not. It was estimated that shipments would increase compared to the previous year, but the growth rate was expected to fall by 14.0% points from 25.0% to 11.0% over the same period.

Trend Force cited excessively high prices as the reason for the slow growth of Faltering foldable phones. For example, the Galaxy Z Fold 5, which Samsung Electronics released in the second half of last year, costs 1,399,200 won (based on 256GB), which is three times the average price of smartphones around the world ($325, about 430,000 won).

It is 21.1% more expensive than the company’s premium phone, the Galaxy S24 (1,155,000 won). In addition, consumers’ stinginess in opening their wallets due to high prices is also considered one of the reasons for the decline in the popularity of the foldable phone industry.

Manufacturers appear perplexed. This is especially true for Samsung Electronics, which ranks first in the industry in terms of market share. Samsung Electronics, confident that foldable phones would change the trend of the smartphone industry, entered the market in 2019, but failed to achieve any significant results.

The market share of Faltering foldable phones led by Samsung Electronics compared to all smartphones was only 1.4% as of last year. In this situation, as growth is slowing, it is predicted that a market share of 2% will only be possible in 2025.

To make matters worse, Samsung Electronics’ position is also shrinking. Trend Force announced that Samsung Electronics’ foldable phone market share, which was 80.0% in 2022, decreased by 13.6 percentage points to 66.4% last year. There are also grim predictions that the market share will fall further to 60.4% this year.

The reason for the decline in the market share of Samsung Electronics’ Faltering foldable phones is Chinese manufacturers, especially Huawei. Huawei’s foldable phone Mate Trend Force seems to have taken this seriously, predicting that Huawei’s market share will increase by 8.1 percentage points from 11.9% in 2023 to 19.8% this year.

As such, the Faltering foldable phone industry got off to an uncertain start in 2024 due to a mix of issues, including slowing growth and the sluggish performance of the industry leader. Of course, it’s not all bad news. Recently, there are rumors in the smartphone industry that ‘Apple may enter the foldable phone market soon.’

Since Apple has transformed the relevant market every time it releases a new product, the industry’s attention is focused on it. This is due to the expectation that it will be able to change the landscape of the foldable phone market, which has been in its infancy for several years.

So, is this rumor true? If true, can Apple change the future of Faltering foldable phones? This story will be covered in more detail in Part 2 of ‘The Present and Future of Foldable Phones.’

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